In the paper the recent Iraqi vote is analyzed. At the beginning of the paper the pre-election conditions in Iraq are discussed. Than the elections itself, their results are in the focus of the author’s attention. Finally, both positive and negative aspects of the Iraqi vote are analyzed as well as perspectives of the country are briefly discussed.
In the contemporary world Iraq remains one of the countries which fate is hardly predictable and it is not always possible to say what is the future of peoples inhabiting this country, suffered from the war, and continuous clandestine movement of opposition and followers of the former leader. Iraq has been remaining top news during last several months and even years. Despite an extremely hard situation in the country there is a slight hope for better that could be brought by recent elections in the post-war Iraq. But many specialists argue whether the results of the Iraqi vote are rather positive or negative. That is exactly what will be analyzed in this paper.
First of all, it is necessary to say a few words about the pre-election period in Iraq. As it is known, the country has been ruled by Saddam Hussein who established a dictator regime and deprived any opposition and dissidents.
Naturally, such an undemocratic regime could not remain for a long time because it contradicted to national interests of the US that is now the only super power in the world. Iraq is situated in a vitally important region for national interests of the US, consequently, the US needed a controllable and preferably democratic country and not a rogue or outcast that threatened to the stability in the whole region.
Taking into consideration the importance of the region at large, and the role of Iraq in particular, the US, supported by its alliances, used conventional military forces to dismantle the regime of dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. In the result of a brief war Iraq was relatively freed from the former authority and the problem of a new legal government and parliament aroused. Despite the provisional government was established it was obviously not enough since it did not have enough legislative power, or as it may be said it was not supported through the plebiscite and nation wide democratic elections. Logically, Iraqi parliament had to be elected and than it could form a new absolutely legal government. So, democratic elections were finally appointed. But at this point it is necessary to say that the conditions before and during the elections were far from ideal. The post-war country suffered from terror attack of supporters of the former regime of Saddam Hussein and Islamic radicals. All of them formed a strong clandestine opposition to the new provisional government, American troops, administration and its alliances and used all means to prevent the elections. However, they failed to sabotage the Iraqi vote but still these elections were probably the bloodiest elections Iraq had ever seen. Furthermore, the results of the elections are quite arguable.
Results of the Iraqi vote and their possible consequences.
As it has already been mentioned, the results of the Iraqi vote are not very optimistic because it did not clarify significantly the future and perspectives of the country and the whole region.
Actually, there are two contradicting opinions about the results of the elections. On the one hand, it is estimated that the Iraqi vote is the victory of the American president administration. The opponents of this point of view stay on the ground that the results are rather in favor of Iran, another country which ahs quite tense relation with the US.
At the first glance, 4,23% that Prime Minster Allawi’s bloc seem to be an absolute failure of American policy in the country, particularly in comparison with the results of Shia, pro-Iran coalition. Actually, the former fact is the main reason why many believe that it was Iran that in this vote. At the same time it is necessary to take into consideration the fact that the great majority for Shia coalition was in the Southern part of the country and regions bordering on Iran, whereas relatively stable regions with strong presence of Americans and their alliances mainly voted for Allawi’s block.
Another noteworthy fact that could influence the elections and further development of Iraq is the nature of party and alliances. Basically they are parties representing certain ethnic groups. For instance, the two main parties in Iraq the mainly-Shia Iraqi United Alliance and the Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan are ethnic parties but they are “the most vanilla ethnic parties you can imagine”ť. Moreover, these two parties used to fight in the civil war against each other. Naturally such a situation creates tension in Iraqi society.
That is why, one of the possible consequences of the Iraqi vote may be growing tension between different political forces, particularly if there is no real majority in Iraqi parliament that could form a stable government. So, speaking about consequences, it may be said that the existence of strong ethnic parties may result in opposition of peoples these parties represent. At the same time, there is no party winner that could control the government and the parliament, consequently the further policy of Iraq would be based on compromises and consensuses, or at least on attempts to reach consensus that would be appropriate for different political forces. SO, the lack of winner may be a disadvantage but on the other hand, it permits different political forces play their own role in political life of the country. It creates conditions for normal development of all regions and all peoples of Iraq regardless their residence or nationality.
Furthermore, it has to be said that on the international level there is practically the same situation. It is quite obvious that in the elections there were two counterparts the US and Iran. In the result of elections both of them or it might be said none of them really won since they do not completely control the parliament and consequently the government of Iraq. In perspective, it means that the future of Iraq is not clear but the fact that the elections took successfully place symbolize that Iraq has perspectives and future.
Thus, taking into account all above mentioned, it is possible to say that Iraq, being in a crucial situation, managed to organize the elections, though American assistance in this process was very significant. It means that Iraq after long years of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship starts its movement toward democratization. However, the results of the Iraqi vote prove that it is a very difficult and challengeable way. Politically, there is no obvious winner both within and outside the country. But still there is a hope that there is one winner, and the winner is Iraqi people.