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Posted on July 23rd, 2012, by

The presidential primary of 2008 are quite different from presidential primaries took place in the past. In fact, the presidential primaries of 2008 have a number of distinct characteristic which differentiate them consistently from previous presidential primaries, but such a difference basically refers to the camp of the Democratic Party, while the Republican Party basically tends to the traditional campaigning. At any rate, the main intrigue of the current presidential primary concerns the Democratic Party and its candidate, while the Republican Party has actually one real candidate that will more likely to be the candidate of the party during the upcoming presidential campaign. At the same time, the situation in both camps is worth attention because they can give insight concerning chances of both Democratic and Republican candidates for the success in the presidential elections in 2008.

Basically, the situation in the Democratic and Republican Parties are quite different, but, at the beginning of the campaign, the situation was not as clear as that. To put it more precisely, since the beginning of the presidential primary the Republican Party had actually several candidates whose chances were initially assessed as approximately equal. At the same time, it should be said that specialists defined John McCain and Mike Huckabee as major candidates that could win the presidential primary within the Republican Party. In fact, their initial chances were very high, but, in actuality, the situation has changed dramatically as the presidential primary has started and progressed.

In this respect, it should be said that the chances of both candidates has started to change dramatically. John McCain got consistently larger chances compared to other rivals, including Mike Huckabee. It should be pointed out that specialists did not really forecast such a change in the presidential primary in the Republican Party and even nowadays Mike Huckabee is viewed as a possible candidate of the Republican Party in the presidential elections (Nagourney, 2008). In contrast, the position of John McCain is practically unshakable and the probability of his failure is extremely low. At any rate, practically all specialists and media agree that John McCain has the best chances to win the presidential primary and became the candidate of the Republican Party.

On analyzing reasons of the success of John McCain in the presidential primary, it is hardly possible to explain such a tremendous success of the Senator by a specific attention from the part of media or by support of influential people and celebrities. It actuality, his current strong position is, to a significant extent, determined by the system of the presidential primary in the Republican Party, which is substantially different from that of the Democratic Party. To put it more precisely, the Republican candidate that wins in a state gets all votes and all delegates of this states that naturally guarantees his support by the state’s delegates. It is worth mentioning the fact that it does not really matter how significant the victory of the candidate in the state was and it is very important because it deprives the opponents of the candidate from serious chances to compete if they fail to win in the majority of states, even though quantitatively they have a very close number of votes in their support. In other words, it does not matter how much votes the candidate gets but what does matter is in how many states he/she wins.

By the way, it should be said that the Republican Party again revealed its devotedness to conservative values since from the beginning of the campaign there were only white and male candidates. The absolutely contrary trend could be observed in the Democratic Party. In fact, Democrats have proved the fact that they are traditionally oriented on the liberalization and democratization of relations between citizens as well as between citizens and state. In this regard, the major candidates from the Democratic Party may be viewed as a serious challenge to Republicans’ conservatism since among the most probable candidates from the Democratic Party were named Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama (Rutenberg, 2008). In fact, from the beginning of the presidential primary Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama took the lead in the race and in a relatively short period of time their leadership was unarguable and recognized by the majority of specialists forcing other Democratic candidates to drop out of the race.

However, the current competition between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama is unparallel and it is not only because of the high degree of competition and extremely high tension between candidates but also because of the candidates themselves. What is meant here is the fact that whatever the candidate wins the presidential primary in the Democratic Party he/she will be the unique candidate. To put it more precisely, the win of Hillary Clinton will means that she will be the first female candidate in the history of the US presidential campaigns. As for Barak Obama, his victory will mark the victory of the first African-American and non-white person that can become the candidate in the presidential elections of 2008.

Speaking about the rivalry between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama, it should be pointed out that their competition is almost unprecedentedly tight and until the present moment neither candidate can take the convincing lead in the race (Nagourney, 2008). At the same time, it should be said that both candidates draw a profound attention of media and public and the fact that they are really different from traditional candidates in the presidential elections increase this interest. However, it does not necessarily mean that either of the candidates is underrepresented. In contrast, the position of both candidates is basically the same and the attention of media to both Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama is very high.

As for the reasons for such a close rivalry, it should be pointed out that they may be similar in a way to those of Republicans. In fact, the problem of both candidates is that each candidate gets as much votes as he/she can get from a state and, thus, unlike in case of the Republican Party, each vote won by the candidate counts and influences the final result of the presidential primary. It should be pointed out that Hillary Clinton is basically supported by females, Latin Americans and older people, while Barak Obama is mainly focused on the youth, and African-Americans as well as males as the main supporters (Rutenberg, 2008).

Furthermore, it should be said that the rivalry between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama is characterized by the growing tension and mutual allegations that may produce a negative impact on the future presidential campaign regardless the candidate that wins the presidential primary in the Republican Party. In fact, the high tension and the use of all possible means to win the support of voters can undermine the positive public image of both candidates and give the strategic advantage to the Republican Party, whose candidate, John McCain, does not suffer from severe criticism from the part of his rivals within the party. On the other hand, the conservatism of the Republican Party may produce a negative impact on their chances in the presidential campaign. The reason is quite obvious, the candidate of the Democratic Party will be definitely different from any American President American people have ever elected, while the candidate of the Republican Party will be quite a conservative candidate. Moreover, it is also necessary to remember about the impact of the current policy of the American President, G.W. Bush, who is also a representative of the Republican camp. In this regard, it should be said that the dissatisfaction of Americans with his policy both domestic and foreign is constantly growing that naturally decreases chances of the Republican candidate in the Presidential elections.

Thus, taking into account all above mentioned, it is possible to conclude that the presidential primary of 2008 are characterized by the high tension of the competition between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama in the Democratic Party and the sure leadership of John McCain in the Republican Party. In such a situation, it is hardly possible to predict that outcome of the presidential primary in regard to the Democratic Party that gives the most probable Republican candidate, John McCain, larger opportunities to prepare for the future presidential campaign and win it.

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