- April 15, 2014
- Posted by: essay
- Category: Term paper writing
On analyzing the current development of EBBD, it is possible to estimate that the company has a poor forecasting program which prevents EBBD from accurate forecasting. However, EBBD is a growing company that needs accurate forecasts in a short-run and long-run perspective. Therefore, the problem of the elaboration and implementation of effective methods of forecasting arises. In this regard, there are several possible solutions to the current problem of EBBD, among which it is possible to single out the use of time series methods and data mining methods which can help the company to make forecasts in a short-run and long-run perspective.
In actuality, time series methods are widely-applied in the contemporary business environment. Time series methods are particularly useful when short-term forecasts are needed. Therefore, EBBD can use a time series method to make short-run forecasts. For seasonal data, the Holt-Winters method is the time series method to apply. This method allows to include seasonal terms and, thus, to make forecast on the ground of possible seasonal changes. The example of the calculation of seasonal changes and possible application of the Holt-Winters method is as follows:
yˆt+hjt = `t + hbt +st